The idea of a Hungarian national team not attending an Olympic Games is unthinkable.
Looking at the men’s team, which gained prominence in Hungary at the turn of the 20th century, they have missed the Olympics only twice in the last 26 Games. In 1920, they were not invited due to perceived culpability in World War 1, and they boycotted Los Angeles in 1984—both unrelated to their athletic prowess. In contrast, the women’s tournament, introduced in 2000, has occurred only six times. Hungary participated in five of these, most recently achieving a bronze medal at Tokyo 2020.
8 Eight teams have qualified for the Paris Olympic Games: France (hosts), Netherlands, Spain, United States, Australia, China, South Africa and Greece.
Nevertheless, for the first time since their first participation in 2004, the women’s team of the world’s biggest water polo nation faces the possibility of not qualifying for the Paris Games. How could this happen in a country that lives and breathes water polo?
The reductive answer is that they haven’t yet qualified.
A disapointing 6th place finish at the World Championships in Fukuoka, followed up by a tepid 5th place finish at this months European Championships in Eindhoven showed that the performances at these tournaments – which served as Olympic qualification opportunities – has simply not been good enough.
Attila Mihok and Sandor Cseh both know nothing is certain regarding Olympic qualification. Photo: Aniko Kovacs/LEN.
So can they still qualify for Paris?
Fortunately, the Magyars have one last chance to qualify for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games next month in Doha. Two Olympic places are on offer for the top two finishers (excluding those who have already qualified), but it might not be as straightforward as it sounds.
While Hungary is favored to top their group (C) in Doha, a group that consists of Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore, qualification might still be out of their hands. Even an automatic place in the quarter-finals would pit them against either the USA or the Netherlands. Despite Hungary’s potential, at this moment, it’s hard to see them defeating either of those teams…
So how will Olympic Qualification likely play out in Doha?
The crucial point to remeber is that five ‘big’ teams have already qualified for the Paris Olympic Games- Netherlands, Spain, USA, Australia and Greece.
Assuming there is no unprecidented shock in the group stage, there is an extremely strong liklihood that this is what the quarter-final stage will look like:
Quarter-finals
Match 35: Netherlands vs Australia
Match 36: Spain vs Canada
Match 37: Hungary vs USA
Match 38: Italy vs Greece
*Please note: This model predicts that the Netherlands finish top of group A, and USA finishes 2nd. In the event of USA finishing top and Netherlands finishing 2nd, swap the home team from Match 35 (NED) with the away team in Match 27 (USA).
The chances are high that the five teams qualified for the Olympics will finish inside the top eight in Doha, meaning finishing as low as 6th and 7th could guarantee Olympic qualification. Of course, if the three ‘big’ unqualified teams – Hungary, Italy, and Canada – were to reach the semi-finals, the highest two finishers would take the qualification spots.
If one unqualified team, for example, Italy, reaches the semi-finals, and the other unqualified teams do not, Italy will qualify for the Olympics. In this case, the remaining Olympic berth will fall to the next highest team. Therefore, if the teams in the 5th-8th semi-finals were Australia vs Canada and Hungary vs Greece, the highest-placing team in this ‘mini bracket’ will take the qualification (see below).
Hungary are good enough to qualify for Paris…but they still need to prove it. Photo: Aniko Kovacs/LEN.
So what is the most realistic scenario that could see Hungary not qualify for the Olympic Games?
If Hungary finishes top of Group C and loses to either the Netherlands or USA (depending on who wins Group A) in the quarter-finals (Match 37), Hungary would then fall into the 5th-8th semi-finals, where they would play either Greece or Italy in ‘Match 42’. Meanwhile, a theoretical ‘Match 41’, the other 5th-8th semifinal would see Australia play Canada.
Tournament Schedule Quarter-finals: 5th-8th Play-off Classification – 7th Place play-off Classification – 5th Place play-off
Match 35: 1A vs winner of 2C vs 3D
Match 36: 1B vs winner 3C vs 2D
Match 37: 1C vs winner 2A vs 3B
Match 38: 1D vs winner 3A vs 2B
Match 41: loser of match 35 vs loser match 37
Match 42: loser of 36 vs loser match 38
Match 45: loser of match 41 vs loser match 42
Match 46: winner of match 41 vs winner match 42
It is a distinct possibility, however, that all the ‘big’ unqualified teams – Hungary, Italy, and Canada – fail to reach the semi-finals and play in 5th-8th play-off games. In this case, traditionally meaningless classifications would gain huge significance. In this case, the top two ranking teams from this bracket would secure qualification for the Paris Olympic Games. In this scenario, these are potential outcomes:
- If Canada defeats Australia and Hungary loses to Italy, Canada and Italy would qualify, leaving Hungary without Olympic qualification.
- If Canada loses to Australia and Hungary loses to Italy in the 5th-8th semi-finals, Italy would secure Olympic qualification. This would result in a direct competition for 7th place between Hungary and Canada, with the winner earning the final Olympic ticket.
- If both Canada and Hungary win their 5th-8th semi-final games, both teams would qualify for the Olympic Games ahead of Italy.
Looking at these scenarios as a Hungarian, you can’t help but sit uneasy, especially given the current form of the national team.
While on their day, Hungary is right up there with the best, you just can’t see this team defeating the likes of Netherlands or the United States in the quarter-finals. If they indeed reach the 5th-8th semi-finals, it would be a huge battle with whoever they played. If it were Italy, they would have to play the game of their lives against another titan seeking Olympic qualification. If they play Greece in the 5th-8th semi-final, it already means Italy qualified for the Olympics, and they would have the pressure to defeat a buoyant team who they lost to a week ago, while hoping that Australia defeated Canada in the other 5th-8th semi-final game. This is all too close for comfort for the Magyars.
Krisztina Garda (Left) and Rebecca Parkes (Right) look on as Hungary pass up another opportunity to qualify for Paris 2024. Photo: Aniko Kovacs/LEN.
Of course, it all depends on the teams that each nation takes. The pressure is off countries like Greece – who qualified for the Olympics at last week’s European Championships – and might use Doha as an opportunity to rotate their squad. The same could be said of Netherlands, USA, and Spain, although this is less likely as these teams aim to continue to build momentum ahead of the Olympics, and of course enjoy the accolade of being world champions.
Frankly, it would be a big loss to not have a great water polo nation like Hungary at the Paris Olympic games, but nobody is entitled to an Olympic ticket, and they need to earn it. Italy will feel the same, but given Italy’s recent form, and that their quarter-final berth is much more generous than Hungary’s, they will be feeling slightly more comfortable in their seats heading to Doha.
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