France vs. Greece: A calculated loss for quarter-finals qualification?

As the women’s tournament in Paris approaches the final day, the stakes are incredibly high in Group B.

Spain and the USA are confirmed as the group’s top two teams, but the remaining two quarter-final places are still up for grabs between three teams: Italy, Greece, and France—with the latter two facing each other tomorrow.

Tomorrow, Italy will take on group leaders Spain, while hosts France will face Greece. If Italy manages to secure at least one point against Spain, the Setterosa will mathematically qualify for the quarter-finals. However, if the Italians are defeated (which is likely based on form), we’ll have to wait for the outcome of the France vs. Greece match, which opens up multiple possibilities.

Ironically, there is a scenario where Greece could inflict a heavy defeat on France—a win by eight goals—but both teams could still progress to the quarter-finals.

So, what are the potential scenarios, and could we see France deliberately lose by an eight-goal margin to secure a historic top-eight finish at their home Olympics?

Scenario A:

France beats Greece:

• France will finish 3rd, Italy 4th, and Greece will be eliminated.

Scenario B:

Greece beats France: The three teams (ITA-FRA-GRE) will be tied with 3 points, and the tie will be broken by head-to-head standings, leading to further sub-scenarios:

• B1: Greece wins by a margin of 1-6 goals:
  • Italy 3rd, Greece 4th, and France 5th.
  • Any victory by up to six goals for the Greeks would see them and the Italians progress to the quarter-finals at the expense of the hosts, France.
• B2: Greece wins by a margin of 7 goals and scores 12 or fewer goals:
  • Italy 3rd, Greece 4th, and France 5th.
  • If Greece wins convincingly against France by seven goals but scores twelve or fewer goals, Italy and Greece would progress, with France finishing Group B in 5th.
• B3: Greece wins by a margin of 7 goals and scores more than 12 goals:
  • Greece 3rd, France 4th, and Italy 5th.
  • If Greece destroys France by a seven-goal margin, scoring more than 12 goals, Greece and France would progress, eliminating Italy from the tournament.
• B4: Greece wins by a margin of 8 goals:
  • Greece 3rd, France 4th, and Italy 5th.
  • If France loses by a margin of eight goals to the Greeks, they would still qualify for the quarter-finals with Greece, while Italy would be eliminated.

It is evident that scenarios B3 and B4 present a significant risk of France not playing at their best and losing heavily, which would still allow both opposing teams to secure their spots in the quarter-finals.

Flawed Regulations?

Some are arguing that the current regulation appear inadequate. The system would reward a team that performed the ‘worst’ among the three in the group stage. For example:

Suppose France-Greece ends 0-8:

• Greece: 3 points, goal difference +4
• Italy: 3 points, goal difference +3
• France: 3 points, goal difference -7

Under these circumstances, France would advance solely because they won their direct encounter with Italy, meaning a single match outweighs the performance across the entire group stage.